ECB set to hold rates as inflation drifts downwards

ECB set to hold rates as inflation drifts downwards

ECB President Christine Lagarde has acknowledged the 'pain' felt by households as a result of aggressive rate hikes, but has cautioned against relenting too soon
ECB President Christine Lagarde has acknowledged the 'pain' felt by households as a result of aggressive rate hikes, but has cautioned against relenting too soon. Photo: Kirill KUDRYAVTSEV / AFP/File
Source: AFP

For the first time in over a year, European Central Bank policymakers are expected to decide against raising interest rates again when they gather in Athens on Thursday.

Once red-hot, inflation, driven by Russia's invasion of Ukraine in early 2022, has started to ease, while the outlook for the economy has worsened.

Consumer prices in the 20-nation currency bloc rose at an annual rate of 4.3 percent in September, its lowest rate in almost two years.

The figure remains clearly above the ECB's two-percent target, but the pain of rising interest rates has been increasingly felt across the bloc.

The outbreak of the Israel-Gaza war has added to the potential troubles faced by the eurozone economy, already weathering the impact of the conflict in Ukraine.

The central bank, which holds one meeting outside its Frankfurt headquarters every year, looks set to follow in the footsteps of the US Federal Reserve and pause interest rate hikes for the time being.

Read also

Markets fall again and oil rises on Middle East, Fed fears

All indications since the last meeting in September were that the ECB's current tightening cycle was "over", said Jack Allen-Reynolds of Capital Economics.

'No rush'

Currently, the ECB's key deposit rate sits at four percent, its highest mark in the history of the central bank.

But after deciding to hike at each of its last 10 meetings, raising rates at their fastest pace ever, "the ECB won't be in any rush to take further action", said ING bank analyst Carsten Brzeski.

The conflict in the Middle East would "further dampen eurozone growth prospects" and, along with rising oil prices, left the ECB in a more "complicated" position, Brzeski said.

"With all the new uncertainties, there hasn't been a better moment in the last 16 months for the ECB to take a pause than now," he added.

Read also

US inflation is 'still too high': Fed Chair Powell

Some eurozone governments, such as Italy and Portugal, have voiced criticism of hard-to-swallow ECB rate increases, while the enthusiasm for more hikes has tempered among the 26 members of the ECB's governing council.

The slowing of eurozone inflation had shown that "our current benchmark rates are appropriate", French central bank governor Francois Villeroy de Galhau said.

Meanwhile, ECB President Christine Lagarde has acknowledged the "pain" felt by households as a result of aggressive rate hikes, but has cautioned against relenting too soon.

Her emphasis would more likely be on monetary policy staying tight for an "extended period", when the ECB shares its decision, Allen-Reynolds said.

'Open door'

Lagarde's colleague on the ECB's board, Luis de Guindos, has warned that work to tame inflation will take time, with the indicator "still expected to remain too high for too long".

Under the bank's current set of projections, published in September, inflation is not set to return to the ECB's target of two percent before 2025.

Read also

UK inflation stays elevated at in September

The governing council would revisit the question of hikes at its last meeting of the year in December, when they will have a new set of forecasts at their disposal.

There was every possibility that the eurozone could see a "further worsening of the economic outlook" before then, Brzeski said.

Economic indicators have largely trended downwards of late, with Germany sinking further into recession.

The International Monetary Fund revised its forecast for Germany down earlier this month, predicting Europe's biggest economy would shrink by 0.5 percent in 2023, while the eurozone as a whole would limp to 0.7-percent growth.

In the meantime, the ECB would want to sound determined, while "keeping the door open to yet another rate hike in December", Brzeski said.

A decision to hold rates at their current levels this week could be presented as a temporary "pause" by the ECB, but could easily "turn into a plateau" for a longer period, Allen-Reynolds said.

Read also

US retail sales higher than expected in September: govt

Interest rate cuts by contrast remain a "long way off", he said.

New feature: Сheck out news that is picked for YOU ➡️ click on “Recommended for you” and enjoy!

Source: AFP

Authors:
AFP avatar

AFP AFP text, photo, graphic, audio or video material shall not be published, broadcast, rewritten for broadcast or publication or redistributed directly or indirectly in any medium. AFP news material may not be stored in whole or in part in a computer or otherwise except for personal and non-commercial use. AFP will not be held liable for any delays, inaccuracies, errors or omissions in any AFP news material or in transmission or delivery of all or any part thereof or for any damages whatsoever. As a newswire service, AFP does not obtain releases from subjects, individuals, groups or entities contained in its photographs, videos, graphics or quoted in its texts. Further, no clearance is obtained from the owners of any trademarks or copyrighted materials whose marks and materials are included in AFP material. Therefore you will be solely responsible for obtaining any and all necessary releases from whatever individuals and/or entities necessary for any uses of AFP material.