Cedi Predicted to Weaken by 8% Against the US Dollar in 2026

• The Ghana cedi is expected to weaken against the US dollar in 2026, according to UK-based firm Fitch Solutions
• Fitch Solutions said Global gold prices and reserves are expected to limit pressure on Ghana's exchange rate
• The UK firm noted that private consumption growth is forecasted at 6.5%, boosting GDP amidst rising public sector wages

The Ghana cedi is expected to weaken against the US dollar in 2026, according to UK-based firm Fitch Solutions.

It said Global gold prices and reserves are expected to limit pressure on Ghana's exchange rate.

It also noted that elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves will limit any undue pressure on the exchange rate.

It continued that while inflation will run slightly hotter in the second half of 2026 amid some demand-side pressures, it will remain modest by recent standards, limiting strain on household finances.

In addition, Fitch Solutions said the government’s commitment, as outlined in the 2026 Budget, to raise public-sector wages by 9.0% will further bolster purchasing power.

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“As such, we forecast private consumption growth to stay strong at 6.5% in 2026, contributing 5.3 percentage points to headline real Gross Domestic Product growth”, it alluded.

Over the past two weeks, the Cedi has experienced modest depreciation pressures against the major trading currencies, driven mainly by seasonal demand and cautious foreign exchange support from the central bank.

In the interbank market, the US dollar Ghana cedi pair closed the fortnight at a midrate of GH¢11.41, up from GH¢1.12. Against the pound and euro, the cedi depreciated by 4.62% and 3.87%, respectively, closing at GH¢15.26 and GH¢13.32.

In the retail market, the cedi depreciated 0.41% to GH¢12.05, shedding 0.94% and 1.08% of its value against the pound and euro, respectively, closing at GH¢15.90 and GH¢13.95.

Commenting on the forex space, Amanda Clinton, a lawyer, reiterated concerns with 5% tax on forex withdrawals.

"The NDC government entered year one with a strong mandate to restore economic stability, business confidence, investment credibility and predictability in policymaking. But confidence is fragile.
It is built slowly and lost quickly.

"A policy that contradicts the $10 billion rescue, alienates businesses, and punishes formal forex flows sends the wrong message at the wrong time."

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Billions in forex to aid cedi in 2025

The Bank of Ghana injected about $10 billion into the forex market in 2025 to help stabilise the cedi.

This was money sold to commercial banks and businesses to meet their dollar needs.

This was part of a broader strategy to meet market demand for dollars, and not a programme designed solely to defend the cedi.

The forex came from the Bank of Ghana's Domestic Gold Purchase Programme, which has generated windfall gains from rising gold prices.

The central bank has executed the programme without depleting its reserves.

Forex analyst explains new normal for the cedi

Samuel Asiamah, a forex analyst, gave insight to YEN.com.gh that could help people looking to navigate the forex volatility as the cedi continued.

The practice of hoarding dollars to guard against inflation and protect, purchasing power is now riskier.

Asiamah explained that the cedi’s fair value has adjusted closer to equilibrium, so big profits from dollar hoarding are shrinking.

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Source: YEN.com.gh