Ghana Cedi Forecast: Currency to Trade Between GH¢10.95 and GH¢11.76 to Dollar by End of September
- Analysts have projected the Ghana cedi will trade within a GH¢10.95 to GH¢11.76 range against the US dollar by the close of September
- The cedi's year-to-date loss narrowed to 6.89% by the end of August, down from 10.04% recorded at the end of July
- The Bank of Ghana sold an estimated US$912 million in August and may increase foreign exchange support as festive season import demand builds
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The Ghana cedi is projected to trade between GH¢10.95 and GH¢11.76 to the US dollar by the end of September, according to analysts at Databank, with the Bank of Ghana expected to scale up its foreign exchange intervention as import demand picks up ahead of the festive season.
The outlook follows a month of mixed performance in August, during which the local currency remained broadly anchored near the GH¢11.00 level against the dollar.
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The cedi recorded its strongest position in the second week of August, when the dollar fetched approximately GH¢10.95, before easing back in the final days of the month.
Despite the late softening, Citi News reported that the cedi's overall trajectory improved notably over the month.
By the last trading day of August, its year-to-date depreciation had narrowed to an average of 6.89 percent, a meaningful improvement from the 10.04 percent loss recorded at the end of July.
On the interbank market, the currency lost ground across major pairs during the two-week review period, depreciating by 2.67 percent against the US dollar, 2.55 percent against the pound sterling and 2.72 percent against the euro. It closed the period at GH¢11.25 to the dollar, GH¢15.23 to the pound and GH¢13.04 to the euro.
The retail market told a different story. The cedi gained 4.33 percent against the dollar and 0.47 percent against the pound, closing at GH¢11.55 and GH¢15.88 respectively. Against the euro, it slipped marginally by 0.18 percent to end at GH¢13.68.
Bank of Ghana Intervention Cited
Analysts credited much of the cedi's relative stability during August to active support from the central bank.
The Bank of Ghana is estimated to have sold approximately US$912 million on the foreign exchange market during the month, equivalent to 91.2 percent of its targeted US$1 billion intermediation programme.
The intervention helped contain speculative activity, ease broader market pressures and contribute to the narrowing of the cedi's year-to-date losses.
Looking ahead to September, Databank analysts expect the Bank of Ghana to modestly increase its foreign exchange support beyond the US$1 billion mark as businesses ramp up import purchases in preparation for the festive season.
The scale of that intervention will be a key factor in determining whether the cedi holds closer to the lower end of the GH¢10.95 to GH¢11.76 projected trading band.
Fitch's prediction on Ghana cedi
YEN.com.gh reporte that the Ghana cedi has already been predicted to weaken against the US dollar in 2026, according to UK-based firm Fitch Solutions.
Fitch Solutions said that global gold prices and reserves are expected to limit pressure on the country's exchange rate.
The UK firm noted that private consumption growth was forecast at 6.5%, boosting GDP amid rising public-sector wages.
It also noted that elevated global gold prices and healthy international reserves will limit any undue pressure on the exchange rate.
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Source: YEN.com.gh
