2025/26 UEFA Champions League Favourites Emerge, Featuring Arsenal, Liverpool, Real Madrid, PSG
- The latest data has already shaken up the favourites, signaling a dramatic shift in Europe’s elite race this season
- A surprise Premier League contender has surged to the top of the predictions, knocking Liverpool off their early-season perch
- With early results defying expectations, Opta’s updated analysis reveals major twists in who could lift the coveted trophy next May
Opta’s statisticians have shuffled the pack and unveiled a new frontrunner to conquer Europe this season, with just two rounds of the 2025/26 Champions League league phase played.
Before the campaign kicked off, Liverpool were tipped as overwhelming favourites, with the Daily Mail noting that Arne Slot’s side had a 20.4% chance of lifting the trophy in Budapest and more than a one-in-three likelihood of reaching the final.
Source: Getty Images
But reality has clipped the Reds’ wings early on. After edging Atletico Madrid with a dramatic late winner on matchday one, they stumbled in Istanbul this week, losing 1-0 to Galatasaray. Their rivals Manchester City also hit a roadblock, conceding a late equaliser to Monaco thanks to ex-Spurs defender Eric Dier, as featured by Reuters.
Who are the 2025/26 UEFA CL favourites?
That slip has cost Liverpool their top spot in Opta’s model. Now, the new favourites are Arsenal, according to Opta predictions.
Mikel Arteta’s men have made a flying start with back-to-back 2-0 wins over Athletic Club and Olympiacos, results that have propelled them to an 18.09% chance of winning the competition and a 31.64% probability of reaching the final. Liverpool now sit second on 14.7%.
Source: Getty Images
Paris Saint-Germain (13.96%), Man City (9.71%), and Bayern Munich (9.5%) complete the current top five. Barcelona and Kylian Mbappe's Real Madrid remain safely tipped to qualify, while Inter, Chelsea, and Newcastle all sit within the top 10 most likely winners.
Chelsea’s prospects, though, look nervy. Enzo Maresca’s side are predicted to finish ninth in the league phase with 13.87 points, just shy of automatic qualification. After losing 3-1 to Bayern on the opening night, they steadied themselves with a much-needed win over Benfica. A clash with Ajax later this month could prove crucial.
As for the rest of the teams, Tottenham and Newcastle are hovering just below the safe zone. Spurs are projected to take 13.25 points (11th place) and Newcastle 12.93 (13th place). Still, both retain strong chances of progressing through the play-offs, with qualification probabilities of 28.52% and 28.96% respectively.
Check out Opta’s updated top 10 favourites to win the 2025/26 Champions League.
1. Arsenal – 18.09%
2. Liverpool – 14.70%
3. Paris Saint-Germain – 13.96%
4. Manchester City – 9.71%
5. Bayern Munich – 9.50%
6. Barcelona – 8.25%
7. Real Madrid – 4.94%
8. Inter Milan – 3.73%
9. Chelsea – 3.51%
10.Newcastle – 3.13%
Opta's 2024/25 UCL winner predictions
Earlier, YEN.com.gh reported on Opta’s Champions League predictions for the 2024/25 season, which featured Paris Saint-Germain among the favourites.
The French giants proved the forecast right after dominating Serie A side Inter Milan in Munich on May 31 to clinch their first-ever UCL crown.
Source: YEN.com.gh
