- Pollster Ben Ephson says the margin of victory for the winner of the NDC's presidential primaries will be a crucial signal of the party's chances of winning the 2024 elections
- He said while it is very clear that John Mahama will win the NDC flagbearer race, he must do so with more than 95% of the votes cast on Saturday, May 13, 2023
- Ben Ephson told YEN.com.gh in an exclusive interview that the NDC parliamentary primaries will turn up some surprises
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Pollster Ben Ephson has said the opposition National Democratic Congress (NDC)'s presidential primaries will not turn up any surprises about who will win, but the victory margin for the winner is crucial for the party in 2024.
He predicts that John Dramani Mahama will beat both Dr Kwabena Duffuor and Kojo Bonsu in the flagbearer race, but he must perform better than the votes he garnered in the last race, 95%.
He said a win with such a huge margin of victory for Mahama will send a strong signal to the opposition party that the party is firmly behind him.
"If he gets below 95%, people will say he is not very popular. In the last presidential primaries he contested against four political heavy weights - Alban Bagbin, Joshua Alabi, Goozie Tanoh and Sylvester Mensah - he got 95%, so if he contesting against two light weights, he must perform better or it will be clear he has lost his popularity," he told YEN.com.gh in an exclusive interview.
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Ephson, who is also the Editor of the Daily Dispatch newspaper, said a huge victory margin will boost Mahama's own confidence ahead of the general elections in 2024.
"It is more of a psychological thing. If he gets below the votes he got the last time, the opposition New Patriotic Party (NPP) can use it against him," he added.
NDC parliamentary primaries will be interesting
Ben Ephson told YEN.com.gh that the parliamentary elections will be where the drama will be as the opposition party elects candidates for some 259 constituencies on Saturday, May 13, 2023.
"For instance, in Abura Asebu Kwamankese Constituency, the Mahama camp is supporting Felix Kwakye Ofosu, but Joseph Yamin is backing Prof Nana Ama Brown Klutse. It will be an interesting contest to watch," he said.
Ben Ephsons also singled out the parliamentary primaries in Adenta as another interesting contest because the data does not back the incumbent, Mohammed Adamu Ramadan, to retain his seat.
"Since 1992, nobody has ever won a second term," he said.
NDC will come out of primaries stronger
Ben Ephson is confident the opposition party will come out stronger from the primaries because shot-callers in the party have learned by now that internal party squabbles caused them in 2016.
"Apathy hit the NDC hard in 2016. They must put their house in order if they will return in 2024. If over the last three elections, you've lost 6.6% in your 'World Bank' [Vota Region] and the NPP has gotten 10% more in the last three elections in your stronghold in the north, then you have a problem," he said.
Duffuor quits NDC presidential race at the last hour
He told journalists late Friday evening that his campaign has been sidelined in processes like the distribution of ballot papers to polling stations.
The former Governor of the Bank of Ghana said he was committed to the party and the grassroots but expressed doubt in the party's preparedness to hold a free and fair election.
Duffuor knows he will be defeated in NDC primaries
YEN.com.gh has reported in a separate story that Kwaku Kobeah, a presidential aspirant who also withdrew from the race much earlier, has said an injunction writ filed by Dr Duffuor against the primaries was in bad faith.
He said Dr Duffuor filed the writ because he knows he will be defeated in the presidential primaries on May 13, 2023.
Kwaku Kobeah says John Mahama is the best presidential candidate for the NDC in the next general elections.
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