Supercomputer Predicts Slim Chance for Ghana's Black Stars to Win 2026 World Cup
- A supercomputer has given the Black Stars only a slim chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup following the completion of the tournament draw
- Ghana, four-time African champions, have been placed in a challenging group alongside England, Croatia, and Panama
- The Black Stars’ best-ever World Cup run came in 2010, when they reached the quarter-finals and heartbreakingly missed out on a historic semi-final spot
- A CAF-accredited sports journalist insists Otto Addo's men would at least make the round of 32, all things being equal
The Black Stars have only a faint chance of winning the 2026 FIFA World Cup, according to a supercomputer.
The forecast, released shortly before the official draw on December 5, 2025, ranked each team’s likelihood of lifting the trophy, and Ghana found itself well outside the group of favourites.
The model, which ran thousands of simulations, placed traditional giants at the top of the list, highlighting England, France, Spain and Argentina as the main contenders.
Source: Getty Images
These nations were rated highly because of their depth, consistent performances, and long track records in global tournaments.
Ghana, however, received a far bleaker assessment, particularly after being placed in Group L with England, Croatia, and Panama.
Opta’s supercomputer handed the Black Stars a tiny 0.04% chance of becoming world champions.
Why supercomputer doubts Ghana?
The projection draws heavily on Ghana’s recent struggles.
Before sealing qualification for the World Cup, the team faltered in a group featuring Angola, Niger and Sudan and ultimately failed to secure a place at the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations.
A series of friendly matches offered little reassurance as Otto Addo’s men lost three of four high-profile encounters in 2025, raising concerns about consistency and cohesion.
To many Ghanaian fans, the numbers therefore do not come as a shock, given the bumpy road leading to the Mundial in North America next year.
Even so, observers have pointed to Ghana’s encouraging talent pool and the possibility of strengthening the squad with foreign-born players who are weighing international switches.
That combination, they argue, could position the side as a dark horse in Group L.
For most supporters, making it past the round of 32 would be considered a significant achievement.
Ghana tipped for knockout phase qualification
Sharing his thoughts with YEN.com.gh, sports broadcaster Stephen Zando offered a dose of perspective and optimism:
"Look, nobody rates Ghana's chances of winning the World Cup so personally I am not surprised with the probability given to the Black Stars. However, in tournaments of this nature there is a likelihood of an underdog story being written, and the Black Stars have the tools to perform such a task.
"Hence, I reckon that should Otto Addo get his act right and the players play at their topmost best, then we could prove Opta's supercomputer wrong."
Elsewhere in Group L, England were rated far more favourably with an 11.8% chance of claiming the ultimate prize, according to The Standard.
Only Spain at 17% and France at 14.1% were given better odds. Defending champions Argentina received an 8.7% chance, while Portugal stood at 6.6%, and Brazil, the tournament’s most decorated side, was placed at 5.6%.
Across Africa’s nine representatives, Morocco topped the list with 1.1%, followed by Senegal at 0.6%, underscoring the uphill battle facing the continent next year.
Source: YEN.com.gh
