- Head of Polls at Global InfoAnalytics Mussa Dankwah has predicted a Mahamudu Bawumia victory in the August 26 primary
- However, Dankwah said the gap between Bawumia and Alan Kyerematen will not be as big as some have predicted
- The pollster gave his prediction for the top five in the primary during an interview with YEN.com.gh
The Head of Polls at Global InfoAnalytics, Mussa Dankwah, has predicted a strong victory for Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia in the upcoming NPP presidential primary.
In an interview with YEN.com.gh, Dankwah, however, cautioned against reading too much into the final results of the August 26 primary, where only 900 delegates are expected to vote in the first round.
The NPP currently has 10 aspirants in the race: Bawumia, Kennedy Agyapong, Alan Kyerematen, Boakye Agyarko, Dr Kofi Konadu Apraku, Dr Owusu Akoto Afriyie, Francis Addai-Nimoh, Joe Ghartey, Kennedy Ohene, Kwabena Agyei Agyapong, and Kwadwo Poku.
Bawumia has received endorsements from a number of bigwigs in the NPP. But Dankwah believes the primary will be closer than expected because of underestimated support for Kyerematen.
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"I am not quite sure about the 70% [victory for Bawumia] some polls are suggesting… I think he might be in the mid 50% or early 60%," the pollster said.
“There may be people that may be [in support of] Alan but they are quiet. We know how some of them feel about the pressure they come under… that feeling is not among ordinary delegates but it could be rife within the super delegates as well.”
For the final primary in November, which will feature thousands of voters, Dankwah said Kyerematen may prove his massive support base.
Predictions of the top five in race
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Giving his final prediction for the August 26 primary, Dankwah said his top five would be Bawumia, Kyerematen, Kennedy Agyapong, Owusu Afriyie Akoto and Joe Ghartey, in this particular order.
Another analyst who spoke to YEN.com.gh, Dr Nansata Yakubu, did not name names but said the two frontrunners, Bawumia and Kyerematen, may be the only candidates standing by the time of the final primary.
Yakubu stressed that the August 26 primary should be considered an important marker.
"After the five, it will become a two-horse race. It will be very clear... Maybe for some of the rest of them, they might not even go the whole mile. People will put their strength behind one of the top two," she said.
Dankwah also said dropouts could be possible before the final primary in November.
He, however, added there may be three candidates left standing instead of two.
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"We may have a field of three or a field of two. I am not sure Kennedy, from the way he believes he is rising, he will pull out unless something fundamentally alters his thinking."
NPP dismisses petition from aspirants
In an earlier story, YEN.com.gh reported that the NPP National Council had dismissed a petition by nine presidential aspirants pushing for the first presidential primary to be centralised.
The National Council of the party said it would stick to what was in the NPP’s constitution after a meeting on Thursday, July 20, 2023. The only aspirant not a signatory to the petition was Bawumia.
The NPP is holding a first primary because, according to its constitution, if there are more than five aspirants, a special delegates congress must be held to reduce the number of aspirants.
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