Supercomputer Picks Champions League Final 4 After Arsenal's Heavy Win: 4% Chance for Real Madrid
- A supercomputer has picked the four semi-finalists for the 2024/25 UEFA Champions League
- The prediction analytics model favoured Arsenal to go all the way in the elite European competition
- UCL title-holders Real Madrid have been handed a slim chance after a quarter-final loss to the Gunners
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Before the UEFA Champions League quarter-finals, Real Madrid was the favourite to retain their European crown, given their performances and pedigree in the competition.
After their 3-0 loss to Arsenal on April 8, however, Opta's supercomputer has painted an entirely different picture of how the semi-finals could look - and it's bad news for Los Blancos.
Source: Getty Images
Declan Rice scored a brace while Mikel Merino - deputising up front in an unorthodox role - capped off a dominant display for the Gunners.
The result of the quarter-final first-leg encounter has left the champions with an uphill battle ahead of the return leg in Madrid, according to UEFA.
In the aftermath of the emphatic scoreline, Opta’s analytics model updated its projections - and the findings are sobering for the Spanish giants.
The supercomputer data has given Real Madrid a meagre four per cent chance of reaching the semi-finals, the lowest among the eight QF teams.
Opta Supercomputer's UCL forecast: Arsenal favourites
With momentum firmly on their side, Arsenal have emerged as the standout contenders in the latest projections.
The North London outfit has now been given a 96% probability of advancing to the elite competition's semi-final stage.
Mikel Arteta’s team was also given a 54.2% shot at reaching the final and 28.4% at winning - more than any other club.
A dominant first-leg performance, underpinned by tactics and set-piece mastery, certainly backs up those numbers.
Supercomputer rates re quarter-finalists
Barcelona follows closely in second in the supercomputer's predictions, boasting an 80% chance to edge past Borussia Dortmund, last year’s losing finalists.
Anchored by a balance of youth and experience, the Catalans crushed the Germans 4-0 and have shown their title credentials in Europe's highest football tier.
Serie A title holders Inter Milan, fresh off a first-leg win over Bayern Munich, are tipped with an 82.4% probability of progressing.
With a robust midfield core and clinical forward line, the Nerazzurri continue to assert their presence as contenders this season.
Paris Saint-Germain, arguably the most in-form team in Europe, faced Aston Villa in their quarter-final match.
At Parc des Princes, the Parisians defeated the English side 3-1 in the first leg to give themselves an advantage.
After shattering Liverpool's aspirations, PSG's current trajectory justified a 72.4% chance to reach the semis.
Bayern (17.6%), Villa (27.6%), and Dortmund (20%) occupy the mid-to-low tier in the updated outlook by Opta's analytics while Real Madrid has been given just 4%.
Yet, if there’s one thing history has taught us, it's that Los Blancos should never be counted out and coach Carlo Ancelotti also refused to rule out a big comeback.
Source: Getty Images
According to the BBC, Real Madrid have lost the first leg of a major European tie by three goals or more on six occasions previously.
The Spanish giants recovered to progress in half of those contests, from turnarounds against PSG to iconic wins over Manchester City.
However, this time, the numbers, tactics, and momentum appear heavily stacked against them, facing a Gunners side brimming with hope.
The full list of projections from the supercomputer for the UEFA Champions League semi-finals and beyond have been listed in the table below:
| Rank | Teams | Semi-final chance (%) | Final chance (%) | Winner (%) |
| 1 | Arsenal | 96 | 54.2 | 28.4 |
| 2 | FC Barcelona | 80 | 43.3 | 22.4 |
| 3 | Inter Milan | 82.4 | 43.7 | 21.1 |
| 4 | PSG | 72.4 | 35.5 | 18.8 |
| 5 | Bayern Munich | 17.6 | 8.6 | 3.7 |
| 6 | Aston Villa | 27.6 | 8 | 3.2 |
| 7 | Dortmund | 20 | 4.4 | 1.3 |
| 8 | Real Madrid | 4 | 2.2 | 1.1 |
Vinicius warns of resurgence against Partey's Arsenal
In an earlier publication, YEN.com.gh reported that Vinicius Jr warned Arsenal ahead of their Champions League second-leg tie in Madrid.
The 24-year-old had a quiet outing as the Gunners outclassed the Spanish giants in the first encounter, but said their comeback would be fierce.
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Source: YEN.com.gh
