AFCON 2025: Supercomputer Predicts Tournament Winner Ahead of Semifinal Showdown
- Opta’s supercomputer has predicted the most likely winner of the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations as the tournament moves into the semi-final stage
- The competition is set for thrilling encounters, headlined by a blockbuster rematch of the 2021 AFCON final between Senegal and Egypt
- Morocco, Nigeria, Senegal and Egypt all remain in contention, with the quartet sharing a rich history that includes a combined total of 13 AFCON titles
As the 2025 Africa Cup of Nations (AFCON) edges toward its conclusion, the spotlight has shifted beyond tactics and team sheets to cold numbers and probabilities.
With just four nations left standing, data-driven forecasts have added fresh intrigue to a tournament that has unfolded largely as expected. This year’s edition in Morocco has avoided fairy tale detours.
The traditional heavyweights have held firm, ensuring the semi-final lineup is rich in pedigree, experience and continental success.
Source: Getty Images
AFCON 2025 semi-final previews
Egypt remain firmly in the hunt. Led by Mohamed Salah, the seven-time champions are chasing their first continental crown since 2010.
Their intent was clear in Agadir, where they edged past defending champions Côte d’Ivoire in a pulsating five-goal quarter-final.
Senegal has also looked every inch a champion in waiting. The 2021 winners have combined control with cutting-edge, striking 11 times on their march into the last four and rarely appearing troubled.
Hosts Morocco have taken a less straightforward route. Performances have fluctuated, though they continue to grind out results.
Their quarter-final success against Cameroon kept the dream alive, even if questions linger about refereeing consistency.
Nigeria complete the quartet with renewed purpose. After enduring World Cup qualification disappointment, bonus disputes and internal tension, the Super Eagles have responded with authority.
They have been the most ruthless in attack at the tournament, scoring 14 goals and brushing aside Algeria in the previous round, per Flashscore.
Tuesday, January 14, sets the stage for two mouthwatering clashes. Senegal face Egypt in a West Africa vs North Africa duel that revisits the 2021 final, a night decided by penalties.
Later, Nigeria meet Morocco in another regional showdown with a place in the final at stake.
Source: Getty Images
Opta supercomputer predicts AFCON winner
With the field narrowed, Opta’s supercomputer has released its latest projections.
After running thousands of simulations that factor in form, scoring trends and opponent strength, Morocco has emerged as favourites.
The model gives the hosts a 38.14% chance of lifting the trophy, which would be their first triumph since 1976.
Senegal follows with a 25.71% probability, reflecting their balanced displays so far.
Nigeria sit third on 19.21%, a nod to their attacking power and growing confidence.
Egypt completes the leading quartet at 17.03%, fuelled by experience and Salah’s influence.
As the margins tighten and pressure rises, the numbers offer guidance, not guarantees.
Soon, only performances will decide who lifts African football’s most coveted prize.
Nigeria equals Egypt's AFCON history
Earlier, YEN.com.gh reported that Nigeria strengthened their AFCON legacy with a commanding quarter-final win over Algeria.
The victory saw the Super Eagles equal a long-standing record previously set by Egypt.
Source: YEN.com.gh
