Election 2024: What Is Bawumia And The NPP’s Path To Victory?
The New Patriotic Party is fighting an uphill battle to win power, with its election victory hinging on turnout in its strongholds and the retention of swing votes
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Vice President Mahamudu Bawumia aims to make history in the 2024 election by becoming Ghana’s first Muslim President and by leading the New Patriotic Party to an unprecedented third successive term in power.
In these history-making attempts, the Ashanti and Eastern regions will be key to the NPP’s election fortunes. While victory is almost assured in these party stronghold regions, the question remains: by how much?
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Most polls show the NPP losing the election, and voter apathy in its strongholds will be a key reason if that happens. To reverse the predictions, the ruling party needs to ensure a healthy margin of victory in its strongholds.
Looking back, the NPP lost the 2012 election in the Ashanti Region but secured 70% of the vote. In the commanding 2016 election victory, they secured 76% of the vote. In the much closer election victory for the NPP in 2020, it secured 71.6% of the vote.
The NPP must ensure its base turns out in numbers to vote to secure victory in the polls. In the Ashanti Region, for example, the party is targeting an unprecedented 85% of the vote.
It has made strategic decisions, like selecting an Asante running mate, Matthew Opoku Prempeh, and unveiling him in Kumasi to appeal to its 'World Bank'.
“Recent polling has them 65%, which is not where they want to be. They are targeting 85%, which I believe is completely impossible,” said Global Infoanalytic's Mussa Dankwa told YEN.com.gh.
Elections: swing regions can't be ignored
Aside from a strong performance in the Ashanti Region, the NPP will have to rely on the fundamentals of good performances in the swing regions to ensure victory.
At the very least, in the swing regions of Greater Accra, Central and Western, Bawumia will need to keep pace with Akufo-Addo’s performance in 2020 to ensure they are on a good footing to break the 8.
"If we see Bawumia maintaining Nana Addo’s figures compared to 2020, then we may have a close election," Dankwa noted.
The Greater Accra Region isn’t considered a bellwether anymore, given that the NDC won it in 2020 but still lost the polls. However, it did not reach the 52%-plus mark that past election winners reached.
Greater Accra is the most populous region in the country when it comes to voters. If the NPP doesn’t do well there, it will significantly hurt its chances in the entire country.
The NPP may ensure a close election and potential victory for the Western and Central Regions if it can maintain the 56% and 53% of the votes it secured in the 2020 elections, respectively.
What does the latest polling say?
Recent polls from Global InfoAnalytics show that while the race has tightened in the swing regions of Greater Accra, Central, and Western, the Akan and northernmost regions are deteriorating for the NPP.
In these swing regions, according to social media polling, the National Democratic Congress flagbearer, John Mahama, is currently projected to have 51.1%, while Bawumia stands at 39.5% per cent.
In the Akan regions, Bawumia leads Mahama 46.6 to 44.5%. The bulk of the remaining votes appear to be shared between independent candidates Alan Kyerematen and Nana Kwame Bediako.
Proofread by Bruce Douglas, senior copy editor at YEN.com.gh
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Source: YEN.com.gh
